MoThoughts
Planning &
Forecasting
July 9th, 2025
Introduction
Traditional forecasting analyzed historical data and trends to create predictive models of the future. Scenario Planning is an exploration tool that looks at forces affecting a business organization’s marketing environment (ICEF, 2021b). Scenario Planning uses current data to extrapolate possible futures of opportunity, threats and possible innovation (ICEF, 2021b).
The discussion below is predominantly based on videos from Woody Wade’s, lecture at GLOBIS Insights and Oliver Baxter’s TEDx Talks and looks at both concepts from the benefits of Scenario Planning.
Scenario Planning vs Traditional
Forecasting
In the TEDx video, The future of Work
and Place, Oliver Baxter refers to Scenario planning as Futuring. He describes
it as a relatively new concept that requires investing in existing fields to
expand its growth in the future (TEDx Talks, 2019). Mr. Baxter notes that this
process includes rethinking our reality’s perspective in order to unveil
creativity and untapped resourcefulness (TEDx Talks, 2019).
This unveiling process requires sticking
to three points (taking a long realistic view, using outside thinking and
collaborating with experts from multiple disciplines or perspectives) while
using the STEEP principle (sociological, technological, economic, environmental
or political) to address and identify forces (TEDx Talks, 2019).
Mr.
Baxter noted four areas of comparison and contrast between scenario planning
and traditional forecasting as follows,
1. Scenario planning is differentiated from traditional
forecasting by moving from imagining and creating actionable insights to
viewing current trends that link together based on the identified forces (TEDx
Talks, 2019).
2. Scenario planning sees the workplace as being more contractual
and with shorten work almost projectized timelines with environments redesigned
for flexible movement based on current corporate objectives (TEDx Talks, 2019).
3. Traditional forecasting generally ‘looked’ very far
into the future which had the result of producing unconcern for those involved
in the process. Scenario Planning views a shorter – i.e. 6 year- time span that
contributors could envision themselves participating in (TEDx Talks, 2019) and
therefore invokes a sense of inclusivity.
4. Traditional forecasting generally started with a narrow
scope, focusing on the company or the company- based objectives or
challenges. Scenario Planning identified
outside forces by looking at wider perspectives and trends and narrowing those
down to see how they could possibly influence the organization (TEDx Talks,
2019).
5. The wider scope of scenario planning demands a larger
team to be consulted using experts from different industries or companies,
whereas in traditional forecasting the groups were prone to homogeneity.
The Globis Insights lecture conducted by
Mr. Woody Wade covered similar points when looking at scenario planning and
traditional forecasting. Mr. Wade cautioned that business people live for the
future and must realize that the future is constantly changing, this change
necessitates a state of readiness that is best conducted by the new concept of
scenario planning (GLOBIS Insights, 2023). Mr. Wade further notes that scenario
planning is a tool that provides organizations an opportunity to come up
with a structured and logical approach because it asks what landscapes could
look like in the future.
This process
requires exploratory visualizations of alternative futures and not predictive
statements. Mr. Wade recommended using
PEST model/ principle (political, economic, societal and technological) forces that
would impact trends or future development (GLOBIS Insights, 2023, ICEF, 2021b).
Two areas of
comparison and contrast between scenario planning and traditional forecasting
highlighted by Mr. Wade are,
1. Scenario planning is a multi-stage procedure that seeks
to focus trends or driving forces down to critical uncertainties (GLOBIS Insights, 2023, ICEF, 2021b). This
has the advantage of pooling resources towards future trends with the largest
potential impact.
2. Traditional forecasts viewed
the future in a linear projection model based on historical occurrences.
Scenario planning uses critical uncertainties to focus on structured quadrants/
matrices which allocate the advantages or disadvantages stemming from the
uncertainty.
Conclusion
Scenario planning is also described as
“multiple alternate futures in which decisions may play out” (Ogilvy, 2022). He
recommends sticking with four scenario perspectives and conducting a detailed eight
step process which involved choosing points to explore and tell a story. Like
Wade, Ogilvy uses structured matrices to look at critical uncertainties which
can be used to develop a strategic position.
Ogilvy notes that there are many ways to
conduct scenario planning (2022). Wade
and Baxter demonstrate two ways of using scenario planning which utilizes models
to identify forces which impact potential futures.
References
GLOBIS
Insights. (2023, July 28). Scenario Planning: Thinking Differently
about Future Innovation [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-CccEPJJ7k
ICEF.
(2021b, January 27). Beyond forecasting: how to use scenario planning
to map the future. ICEF Monitor - Market Intelligence for International
Student Recruitment. https://monitor.icef.com/2014/02/beyond-forecasting-how-to-use-scenario-planning-to-map-the-future
Ogilvy,
J. (2022, April 14). Stratfor: Scenario planning and strategic forecasting.
Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/stratfor/2015/01/08/scenario-planning-and-strategic-forecasting/
TEDx Talks.
(2019, June 21). Scenario planning - the future of work and place |
Oliver Baxter | TEDxALC [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAFGRGm2WxY
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