Did Scenario Planning occur in Cable Broadband Industry related to Streaming
Services by Satellite Providers?
Introduction
On the morning of June 14th,
2025, the readers of one of the top two newspapers in The Bahamas were greeted
with the headline -Cable fears Starlink may force them out of the market
(Hartnell, 2025). The article created a
whirlwind of discussion in homes, workplaces, on radio shows, and online. ‘Everyone’
had something to say. The article’s first line stated that, “Cable Bahamas is
warning it may ‘be forced to exit the market and/or file for bankruptcy’ if
regulators fail to ensure it can compete on equal terms with Elon Musk’s
Starlink and other satellite providers” (Hartnell, 2025).
The Daily reported information from communications
which occurred with the country’s utilities regulator, Utilities Regulation and
Competition Authority, URCA (Hartnell, 2025).
The Cable provider opposed the proposed
seventy cents per megahertz spectrum fee to be levied on Starlink noting that
it was 13,000 times less than Cable Bahamas’ mobile services (Hartnell, 2025).
The provider noted that the fees were discriminatory and did not promote a
competitive industry. The sentiments
were backed by the provider’s local competitor, BTC Bahamas and noted that satellite
providers do not have the legacy community relationships or infrastructural
investments which the local providers have cultivated within the country
(Hartnell, 2025).
History Tools informs us that, “in
January 2015 SpaceX officially announced its intention to build a satellite
constellation for the purpose of providing global broadband internet
connectivity” (2024). BahamasLocal.com notes that Cable Bahamas begin
“providing cable television services in The Bahamas since March 1995, and
Internet services since March of 2000” (n.d.).
Contemplation
of a scenario planning case led Woody Wade to state that, “wasn’t the real
problem a failure of imagination on the part of the people with the responsibility…”
(Wade, p. 189, 2012).
Scenario
planning combines creative imaging of future products or services using
awareness of industry trends and innovations, present…today.
The Broadband
Cable Industry has provided television and internet access at high speeds
within global markets using a multitude of connected devices for work,
entertainment, school, research and more.
This article
contemplates how scenario-type planning would have supported the pivoting of the
Broadband Cable Industry (inclusive of fiber optic broadband) in the face of internet
streaming satellite providers and what forces are impacting the industry.
How does scenario-type planning support planning and innovation for change?
Scenario planners are to imagine what
COULD happen verses acting as if they know what WILL happen (Wade, 2012).
SpaceX
announced its intention to revolutionize the provision of broadband internet service
in 2015, yet even with this announcement Cable providers did not imagine what
COULD happen.
Engagement of
scenario planning around the 2015 announcement could have led to:
1.
Early
adoption of steaming satellite technology by some of the cable providers,
2.
Formation
of a mutually beneficial relationship with SpaceX or,
3.
Anticipatory
regulatory meetings and changes within local jurisdictions.
Scenario planning resulting in the three steps above
would have given broadband companies innovative steps towards the upcoming
change.
Monitoring and observation of forces related
to the Broadband Internet Industry shows the impact scope of changes in this
industry.
Industry Forces involved and the Impacts
“As cable TV viewership
drops, streaming has grown from 44.1% in 2021 to 53.8% in 2023” (Bouma, 2023).
The article
above highlights economic, social, technological and legal forces contributing
to changes within the Broadband Cable industry in The Bahamas. While this case highlights a recent incident
in The Bahamas, the trend is worldwide because the forces are global in
scope.
Using
the PESTLE (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal and
Environmental) model of forces I will highlight a few which are impacting the
global Cable Industry.
Economic Impacts
Hardenbergh,
underscored that television was an intentional evolutionary product of the
Industrial Revolution and served the economic needs of corporations (2010).
Gaines (2025)
notes that while the average cable packages often exceeds $100.00 per month (I
pay $119.00 plus taxes for the most basic fiber package) persons often, “watch
only a few channels regularly which results in an average monthly cable TV bill
ranging from $114.00 to $217.00.
The Cable
model is built on access, the more you want, the more you pay. Gaines points
out a glaring point about the model which includes, cost for devices,
maintenance, connectivity fees and the fact that most people pay for channels
that they do not watch however streaming services have a lower cost between
$10.00 and $15.00 per month.
Inscape looked
at VIZIO TV and discovered that “75% of all cable and satellite customers have
cut back the amount of time they spend on cable TV. This comes as even cable subscribers are
spending more time on streaming” (Bouma, 2023). Satellite providers provide internet access to
streaming services with a wider variety of entertainment and television shows.
Daffern conducted a systematic analysis
of Starlink’s services and concludes that while the Starlink service cost may
be comparable to traditional Cable Broadband services, the factor of
differentiation appears to be in its ability to provide reliability, speed and
freedom from a heavy infrastructural network (2025).
Choosing a service provider in the
referenced industry requires payment for the services. The Economic Impacts can
relate to whether a company is exclusively conducting business solely for
self-gain or in order to provide a needed technological service to the
community while balancing financial opportunities.
Environmental and Social Impacts
In the introduction Cable Bahamas noted the community
and infrastructural investments it would have made in The Bahamas versus those
that a satellite provider will not have to make. The nature of a satellite is
that it provides streaming services without much corporate interaction with
users. Once a user or installer receives and installs the products, the process
is automated (Daffern, 2025) Service and payments are both automated, no need
for corporate interventions.
The satellite providers’ corporate
impact with users is limited -which is unfortunate because clients often like
to see positive community impacts from companies who are having financial gains
from conducting business within the community.
The positive nature of a
satellite provider’s set up is beneficial compared to the traditional hardware,
poles and lines that is required by Cable Broadband providers. The minimally invasive (if any) installation
maintains green spaces and trees. This benefit,
however, pales in comparison to what is happening in the atmosphere.
Sarnoff references a study published in Geophysical
Research Letters that found that in 2022 there was a 29.5% increase in
aluminum in the atmosphere above natural levels due to satellites reentering
the earth’s atmosphere. Concerns over potential space collisions and deorbiting
satellites are present with the rise of this new technology (2024).
Environmental and Social
Impacts will be shown in how the corporations within the industry provide
goodwill or return benefits to the communities that support the bottom line.
Returns can be financial, educational or environmental. Scenario
planning looks to the future, however if the actions taken by companies produce
negative impacts on today’s environment will there be a positive tomorrow?
Technological Impacts
Hardenbergh explores how
today’s society and culture has changed towards the television (Cable) medium
that instead of experiencing an aural and visual landscape modern users are
exposed to a multitude of aural, and visual tools, one that enables live
comments to be given (sometimes in the form of rants) blogs, websites and
social media platforms that promote
inclusive experiences (2010). These technologies also provide Zoom and other video-based
platforms that require reliable connection, high speeds and bandwidth.
Technological Impacts for industry
would be in its ability to continue to provide tools which allow users to
directly interact within the medium. Reduction of downtime and reliable
connections are features which are desired by clients (Daffern, 2025).
Conclusion
Scenario-planning for this industry would have been to respond to the announced intentions of the new satellite innovation.
An important part of
scenario planning involves monitoring proposed innovations within an industry. Woody Wade refers to this as awareness of, “the
consequences of the consequences” (Wade, p. 159, 2012). He states that one of
the ways in which scenario planning can envision what could happen is to keep a
pulse on Societal Forces. These are “arguably the most far-reaching in the long
term” (Wade, p. 159, 2012) and should be considered in the scenario plan.
Hardenbergh acknowledges
that, the environment of television is changing, not just for economic
reasons…but also because the way we are interacting with the medium is
different. We need to continue to
analyze the implications for our culture, for our ways of knowing, for
ourselves” (p. 6, 2010). It is therefore a must that scenario planners include
the possibility of cultural and societal changes when thinking of possibilities. This information to an extent can be informed
by trends, but more reliability can be envisioned by ‘seeing’ the consequences
of consequences and therefore remain grounded within the realm of possibility.
BahamasLocal.com. (n.d.). CABLE Bahamas Ltd -
Nassau - Nassau / Paradise Island, Bahamas. https://www.bahamaslocal.com/showlisting/6287/CABLE_Bahamas_Ltd.html
Bouma,
L. (2023, September 6). The death of cable TV is speeding up as cable
& satellite viewership drops to just 37.1% of all TV viewing. Cord Cutters
News. https://cordcuttersnews.com/the-death-of-cable-tv-is-speeding-up-as-cable-satellite-viewership-drops-to-just-37-1-of-all-tv-viewing/
Daffern, W. (2025, June 30). Starlink cost in 2025:
The complete guide to what you’ll really pay. Clear
Telecommunications. https://www.cleartelecommunications.com/post/starlink-cost
Gaines,
B. (2025, June 26). Is cable TV dying? (Reasons explained).
evoca.tv. https://evoca.tv/cable-tv-dying/
Hardenbergh, M. (2010). The death of
television. ETC: A review of general semantics, 67(2), 170-176.
Hartnell, N. (2025, July 14). Cable fears
starlink may force them out of market. The Tribune. https://www.tribune242.com/news/2025/jul/14/cable-fears-starlink-may-force-them-out-of-market/
History
Tools (2024, March 26). The complete history of starlink: Bringing global
internet from space. History tools. https://www.historytools.org/companies/starlink-history
Sarnoff, L. (2024, October 29). Is Musk’s starlink
polluting space? Researchers call for the FCC to pause launches. ABC News. https://abcnews.go.com/US/musks-starlink-polluting-space-researchers-call-fcc-pause/story?id=115276437
Wade, W. (2012). Scenario planning. Wiley professional,
reference & trade (Wiley K&L). https://coloradotech.vitalsource.com/books/9781118237410
