Phase- Change Materials - A Fundamental Solution

Phase-change materials socio-technical plan.  

Resisting the Force and Staying the course- a Blockbuster error

...meanwhile we will stay the course

Introduction

The featured organization faced several forces that bypassed the corporation’s ability to adapt, plan and engage in futuring. In 2004 the successful corporation had a market value of 5.9 billion dollars with a strong global presence and a staff above 80,000 people (Harress, 2015).

The organization is Blockbuster.

Blockbuster, a well-known name that offered movie and video game rental services to millions of people was unable to combat, “competition from online streaming and on-demand rental sites (Harress, 2015).

Resisting the Force

The forces that influenced the downfall of Blockbuster will be taken from the STEEPLE model. This well-known strategic analytical model that lists Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, Legal and Ethical external factors. These factors or forces can influence a business’s success model (George and Creately, 2024).

Two of the external factors or forces I will focus on related to Blockbuster are the Social and Technological Elements.

Social Forces

George and Creately neatly sums up Social Factors as demographics, lifestyle transformations and evolving social values fueled by sustainability, social justice, diversity and ethical consumption (2024).

Blockbuster clients that realized that media was digitally available contributed to the trend for this form of entertainment to explode. Harress reports that Blockbuster did not change its physical rental model when digital media was in its infancy, neither did it purchase Netflix for $50 million in 2000 when an offer was made (2015), showing a lack of strategic prowess.

Technological Forces

Technological Forces are described as considerations of the innovation ecosystem, such as AI, quantum computers, biotechnology and other emerging technologies. Digital Transformation and the ability to embrace AI, IoT technologies, cybersecurity and cloud computing. Research and development which underscores Technological forces with investments, patents, identification of disruptive innovations and collaborative research ecosystems (George and Creately, 2024).

Between 2005-2007 Blockbuster made a crucial error by not embracing digital transformation. Harress states that decisions inclusive of “ditching the total access online service in favor of continuing the in-store, retail-orientated model “ (2015) proved to be a big mistake and placed the company’s technology stance behind its rivals.

Summary

Forbes reports that Blockbuster lost 75% of market value between 2003 to 2005 (2010). The company lost its shares partially due to social forces like changing entertainment values and technological forces such as the inability to explore emerging technologies, envision the future of digital transformation or understand the serious nature of disruptive innovations.

In an increasingly digitized society, survival requires constant review of forces and intelligence backed bravery to, not stay the course. Blockbuster is a perfect case study in what happens when Social and Technological forces are ignored.

References

Forbes. (2010, May 18). (A timeline: the blockbuster life cycle. https://www.forbes.com/2010/05/18/blockbuster-netflix-coinstar-markets-bankruptcy-coinstar_slide.html

George, C., & Creately. (2024, November 29). What is a STEEPLE Analysis? Understanding its Elements and How to Create One. Creately. https://creately.com/guides/steeple-analysis/

Harress, C. (2015, December 5). Blockbuster RIP: The Video-Rental Empire is Dead. International Business Times. https://www.ibtimes.com/sad-end-blockbuster-video-onetime-5-billion-company-being-liquidated-competition-online-giants

Word Coun

Three states that describe Innovation Experience: Serendipity, Error & Exaptation

 

 Serendipity, Error & Exaptation 

Serendipity

Serendipitous innovations occur when people are not actively seeking a benefit or solution or actively inventing. These innovations come as a surprise to the inventor as well as to the market. 

In 1938, Ruth Wakefield (part owner of the Toll House Inn in Massachusetts) decided to make cookies for expected guests. When she arrived in the kitchen she realized she did not have bakers’ chocolate and hastily decided to chop up a bar of semi-sweet chocolate and add it to her ingredients (Kabir, 2023). 

The yummy result of this hasty action turned into a worldwide sensation called Chocolate Chip Cookies.  This serendipitous innovation paid off when one year later, Ms. Wakefield allowed Nestle to use the recipe and the Toll House brand was born (Kabir, 2023). 

Error

Innovations that occur by Error are accidental in nature and are products (or services) that were meant to be a solution or benefit in other ways. 

An example of this would be the popular product Post-its.    

Chemist, Dr. Spencer Silver was in the process of experimenting with formulas to create stronger adhesives in 1968 (Bellis, 2019b, Skonord, 2021). This work led to the discovery of  microspheres which is an adhesive substance that removes easily from surfaces (Post-it.com, n.d.).  Even though the substance did not create a strong bond, Dr. Silver believed that the product could be useful and promoted it constantly (Skonord, 2021). 

Several years later Art Fry- a scientist who worked at the same company as Dr. Silver (3M), contacted Dr. Silver to collaborate on a product which could potentially solve a problem with bookmarking. They developed the sticky note originally known as, Press ‘n Peel and which later became known as Post-it notes (Bellis, 2019b, Post-it.com, n.d.).

 

In 2024 The Post-It note market size was 200.09 Million with a CAGR of 1.07% to 2033 -for a market valued at 206.59 million (Global Market Statistics, n.d.).

 

Exaptation

Of the three methods of invention being discussed Exaptation reveals itself to be the one with multiple applications. Exaptation occurs when an invention or innovation is created for one purpose but is repurposed to provide benefit or solutions in a different area. 

Percy LeBaron Spencer is credited with the invention of the Microwave oven.  When he discovered this invention in 1945, he was seeking a way to make a radar tool called magnetrons more efficient (Omnispear, 2024).  During this process he noticed changes in the state of nearby food which would occur whenever he or his associates worked on the magnetrons.  The changes in state peaked his curiosity and in 1945 after further experiments the Microwave oven was patented (Omnispear, 2024).  

The Microwave oven is an example of exaptation because it came about from work on an existing product, the magnetrons (Andriani & Cattani, 2016).

 

Global Market Insights noted that in 2024 the Microwave market was valued at 10.5 billion dollars with a CAGR of 4.6 % plus with a market value of 16.3 billion by 2034 (Singh & Singh, 2024).

 

If an innovation is created or discovered intentionally, serendipitously, by error or exaptation the development requires an atmosphere of openness, empowerment and experimentation to grow (Skonord, 2021).  When the inventor(s) are enabled in such an atmosphere, the possibilities become reality.

 

 

References

Andriani, P., & Cattani, G. (2016). Exaptation as source of creativity, innovation, and diversity: Introduction to the special section. Industrial and Corporate Change, 25(1), 115-131. https://doi.org/10.1093/icc/dtv053

Bellis, M. (2019b, October 16). Invention of the post-it note. ThoughtCo. https://www.thoughtco.com/history-of-post-it-note-1992326

Global Market Statistics. (n.d.).  Post-it & sticky notes market size, share | Global Research [2033]. https://www.globalmarketstatistics.com/market-reports/post-it-sticky-notes-market-10894

Kabir, S. R. (2023, December 11). Who invented chocolate chip cookies? Story of the blissful biscuit | history cooperative. History Cooperative. https://historycooperative.org/who-invented-chocolate-chip-cookies/

Omnispear. (2024, February 13). Wilson Greatbatch. Engineering & science hall of fame. https://eshalloffame.org/inductee/wilson-greatbatch/

Post-it.com (n.d.). About us: MMM-ext. https://www.post-it.com/3M/en_US/post-it/contact-us/about-us/

Singh, S., & Singh, A. (2024). Microwave oven Market - by product type, by structure, by capacity, by power, by price range, by end use, by distribution channel analysis, share, growth Forecast, 2025 to 2034. In Global Market Insights Inc. https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/microwave-oven-market

Skonord, C.(2021, February 19). Post-it notes: An employee idea that was originally a mistake. Ideawake. https://ideawake.com/post-it-notes-employee-idea-that-was-originally-mistake/

 

 

The Cable Broadband Industry vs Streaming Services by Satellite Providers

 

Did Scenario Planning occur in Cable Broadband Industry related to Streaming Services by Satellite Providers?

Introduction

         On the morning of June 14^th, 2025, the readers of one of the top two newspapers in The Bahamas were greeted with the headline -Cable fears Starlink may force them out of the market (Hartnell, 2025).   The article created a whirlwind of discussion in homes, workplaces, on radio shows, and online. ‘Everyone’ had something to say. The article’s first line stated that, “Cable Bahamas is warning it may ‘be forced to exit the market and/or file for bankruptcy’ if regulators fail to ensure it can compete on equal terms with Elon Musk’s Starlink and other satellite providers” (Hartnell, 2025). 

         The Daily reported information from communications which occurred with the country’s utilities regulator, Utilities Regulation and Competition Authority, URCA (Hartnell, 2025).

         The Cable provider opposed the proposed seventy cents per megahertz spectrum fee to be levied on Starlink noting that it was 13,000 times less than Cable Bahamas’ mobile services (Hartnell, 2025). The provider noted that the fees were discriminatory and did not promote a competitive industry.  The sentiments were backed by the provider’s local competitor, BTC Bahamas and noted that satellite providers do not have the legacy community relationships or infrastructural investments which the local providers have cultivated within the country (Hartnell, 2025).

         History Tools informs us that, “in January 2015 SpaceX officially announced its intention to build a satellite constellation for the purpose of providing global broadband internet connectivity” (2024). BahamasLocal.com notes that Cable Bahamas begin “providing cable television services in The Bahamas since March 1995, and Internet services since March of 2000” (n.d.). 

    Contemplation of a scenario planning case led Woody Wade to state that, “wasn’t the real problem a failure of imagination on the part of the people with the responsibility…” (Wade, p. 189, 2012).

    Scenario planning combines creative imaging of future products or services using awareness of industry trends and innovations, present…today.

    The Broadband Cable Industry has provided television and internet access at high speeds within global markets using a multitude of connected devices for work, entertainment, school, research and more.

    This article contemplates how scenario-type planning would have supported the pivoting of the Broadband Cable Industry (inclusive of fiber optic broadband) in the face of internet streaming satellite providers and what forces are impacting the industry.

       

 How does scenario-type planning support planning and innovation for change?

Scenario planners are to imagine what COULD happen verses acting as if they know what WILL happen (Wade, 2012).

    SpaceX announced its intention to revolutionize the provision of broadband internet service in 2015, yet even with this announcement Cable providers did not imagine what COULD happen.

    Engagement of scenario planning around the 2015 announcement could have led to: 

     1.     Early adoption of steaming satellite technology by some of the cable providers,

     2.     Formation of a mutually beneficial relationship with SpaceX or,

     3.     Anticipatory regulatory meetings and changes within local jurisdictions.

Scenario planning resulting in the three steps above would have given broadband companies innovative steps towards the upcoming change.

 Monitoring and observation of forces related to the Broadband Internet Industry shows the impact scope of changes in this industry.

Industry Forces involved and the Impacts

“As cable TV viewership drops, streaming has grown from 44.1% in 2021 to 53.8% in 2023” (Bouma, 2023).

         The article above highlights economic, social, technological and legal forces contributing to changes within the Broadband Cable industry in The Bahamas.  While this case highlights a recent incident in The Bahamas, the trend is worldwide because the forces are global in scope. 

    Using the PESTLE (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal and Environmental) model of forces I will highlight a few which are impacting the global Cable Industry.

         Economic Impacts

         Hardenbergh, underscored that television was an intentional evolutionary product of the Industrial Revolution and served the economic needs of corporations (2010).   

    Gaines (2025) notes that while the average cable packages often exceeds $100.00 per month (I pay $119.00 plus taxes for the most basic fiber package) persons often, “watch only a few channels regularly which results in an average monthly cable TV bill ranging from $114.00 to $217.00. 

    The Cable model is built on access, the more you want, the more you pay. Gaines points out a glaring point about the model which includes, cost for devices, maintenance, connectivity fees and the fact that most people pay for channels that they do not watch however streaming services have a lower cost between $10.00 and $15.00 per month.

    Inscape looked at VIZIO TV and discovered that “75% of all cable and satellite customers have cut back the amount of time they spend on cable TV.  This comes as even cable subscribers are spending more time on streaming” (Bouma, 2023).  Satellite providers provide internet access to streaming services with a wider variety of entertainment and television shows.

         Daffern conducted a systematic analysis of Starlink’s services and concludes that while the Starlink service cost may be comparable to traditional Cable Broadband services, the factor of differentiation appears to be in its ability to provide reliability, speed and freedom from a heavy infrastructural network (2025).

         Choosing a service provider in the referenced industry requires payment for the services. The Economic Impacts can relate to whether a company is exclusively conducting business solely for self-gain or in order to provide a needed technological service to the community while balancing financial opportunities.

         Environmental and Social Impacts

         In the introduction Cable Bahamas noted the community and infrastructural investments it would have made in The Bahamas versus those that a satellite provider will not have to make. The nature of a satellite is that it provides streaming services without much corporate interaction with users. Once a user or installer receives and installs the products, the process is automated (Daffern, 2025) Service and payments are both automated, no need for corporate interventions.

    The satellite providers’ corporate impact with users is limited -which is unfortunate because clients often like to see positive community impacts from companies who are having financial gains from conducting business within the community.  

    The positive nature of a satellite provider’s set up is beneficial compared to the traditional hardware, poles and lines that is required by Cable Broadband providers.  The minimally invasive (if any) installation maintains green spaces and trees.  This benefit, however, pales in comparison to what is happening in the atmosphere.

     Sarnoff references a study published in Geophysical Research Letters that found that in 2022 there was a 29.5% increase in aluminum in the atmosphere above natural levels due to satellites reentering the earth’s atmosphere. Concerns over potential space collisions and deorbiting satellites are present with the rise of this new technology (2024).

    Environmental and Social Impacts will be shown in how the corporations within the industry provide goodwill or return benefits to the communities that support the bottom line. Returns can be financial, educational or environmental. Scenario planning looks to the future, however if the actions taken by companies produce negative impacts on today’s environment will there be a positive tomorrow?

Technological Impacts

    Hardenbergh explores how today’s society and culture has changed towards the television (Cable) medium that instead of experiencing an aural and visual landscape modern users are exposed to a multitude of aural, and visual tools, one that enables live comments to be given (sometimes in the form of rants) blogs, websites and social media platforms that  promote inclusive experiences (2010). These technologies also provide Zoom and other video-based platforms that require reliable connection, high speeds and bandwidth.    

    Technological Impacts for industry would be in its ability to continue to provide tools which allow users to directly interact within the medium. Reduction of downtime and reliable connections are features which are desired by clients (Daffern, 2025).

 

Conclusion

Scenario-planning for this industry would have been to respond to the announced intentions of the new satellite innovation.

    An important part of scenario planning involves monitoring proposed innovations within an industry.  Woody Wade refers to this as awareness of, “the consequences of the consequences” (Wade, p. 159, 2012). He states that one of the ways in which scenario planning can envision what could happen is to keep a pulse on Societal Forces. These are “arguably the most far-reaching in the long term” (Wade, p. 159, 2012) and should be considered in the scenario plan.

    Hardenbergh acknowledges that, the environment of television is changing, not just for economic reasons…but also because the way we are interacting with the medium is different.  We need to continue to analyze the implications for our culture, for our ways of knowing, for ourselves” (p. 6, 2010). It is therefore a must that scenario planners include the possibility of cultural and societal changes when thinking of possibilities.  This information to an extent can be informed by trends, but more reliability can be envisioned by ‘seeing’ the consequences of consequences and therefore remain grounded within the realm of possibility.

 

 

 

 REFERENCES

BahamasLocal.com. (n.d.). CABLE Bahamas Ltd - Nassau - Nassau / Paradise Island, Bahamas. https://www.bahamaslocal.com/showlisting/6287/CABLE_Bahamas_Ltd.html

Bouma, L. (2023, September 6). The death of cable TV is speeding up as cable & satellite viewership drops to just 37.1% of all TV viewing. Cord Cutters News. https://cordcuttersnews.com/the-death-of-cable-tv-is-speeding-up-as-cable-satellite-viewership-drops-to-just-37-1-of-all-tv-viewing/

Daffern, W. (2025, June 30). Starlink cost in 2025: The complete guide to what you’ll really pay. Clear Telecommunications. https://www.cleartelecommunications.com/post/starlink-cost

Gaines, B. (2025, June 26). Is cable TV dying? (Reasons explained). evoca.tv. https://evoca.tv/cable-tv-dying/

Hardenbergh, M. (2010). The death of television. ETC: A review of general semantics, 67(2), 170-176.

Hartnell, N. (2025, July 14). Cable fears starlink may force them out of market. The Tribune. https://www.tribune242.com/news/2025/jul/14/cable-fears-starlink-may-force-them-out-of-market/

History Tools (2024, March 26). The complete history of starlink: Bringing global internet from space. History tools. https://www.historytools.org/companies/starlink-history

Sarnoff, L. (2024, October 29). Is Musk’s starlink polluting space? Researchers call for the FCC to pause launches. ABC News. https://abcnews.go.com/US/musks-starlink-polluting-space-researchers-call-fcc-pause/story?id=115276437

Wade, W. (2012). Scenario planning. Wiley professional, reference & trade (Wiley K&L). https://coloradotech.vitalsource.com/books/9781118237410

 

Forecasts that became reality

MoThoughts

Planning & Forecasting I

July 9^th, 2025

 

Forecasts that became reality

‘What may happen in the Next Hundred Years’ was an article written by John Elfreth Watkins Jr. in the December 1900 Ladies Home Journal.  The article contained a descriptive list of predictions varying from technological to agricultural innovations and were given to Mr. Watkins by a cadre of interviewed contemporaries (Novak, 2020, Ladies Home Journal predictions in 1900, 2012). 

This discussion will showcase three of the predictions noted in this article using the anticipated ‘predicted-by’ year of 2000.  Next a look at the solutions or innovations that  made this forecast a reality and finally I will mention the forces that influenced the success of the predictions. 

Three of the following predictions in this referenced article were intriguing to me.

1.     “The American will be taller by from one to two inches.  His increase of stature will result from better health, due to vast reforms in medicine, sanitation, food and athletics.  He will live fifty years instead of thirty-five as at present…” (Novak, 2020).

2.     “Man will see around the world. Persons and things of all kinds will be brought within focus of cameras connected electrically with screens at opposite ends of circuits, thousands of miles at a span” (Novak, 2020).

3.     “Photographs will be telegraphed from any distance. If there be a battle in China a hundred years hence snapshots for its most striking events will be published in the newspapers an hour later…Photographs will reproduce all of Nature’s colors” (Novak, 2020).

 

Picture Perfect: The Evolution of the Camera

Tangible solutions to predictions

Looking back from 2025 these three predictions among several others in this article would have become true by the year 2000.

1.     In 1900 the average height of American men was 66.9 inches and women 62.5 inches (Our World in Data, n.d.). In 2000 the average height of American men- 69 inches and women- 64 inches (Ogden, 2004). Roser et. al., confirms that nutritional deficiencies and illness in childhood limits human growth, this links this prediction to the medicine, sanitation and food factors mentioned in the year 1900 statement. In 2000 the life expectancy was 76.9 years (Arias, 2002) This prediction came true.

2.     Beating the year 2000 deadline was the monitoring camera set up in the Trojan room at University of Cambridge in 1993. Kesby (2012) recalls how Dr. Stafford-Fraser and Dr. Jardetsky set up a camera to monitor a coffee pot to ensure that they had a drink when going on research breaks.  In November 1993 Dr. Johnson wrote the script around that code. This action allowed computer enthusiasts from all over the world to watch a coffee pot go from full to mid-level to empty. This was the first time man ‘saw pictures’ around the world. This prediction came true.

3.     In the 1500s cameras were being used as drawing aids, throughout the following centuries  a long complicated story  involving a major struggle to find an efficient method to create a chemically stable photograph and one that held colors ensued. As early as 1907 the photography industry saw the advent of a near stable camera -The Autochrome camera.  This remained the basic design until the innovations of the1930s, which saw the invention of color films (Tom Patton, 2020).  By November 1993 photographs were able to be broadcast around the world.  This prediction came true.

Contributing forces impacting predictions

This fascinating post held several predictions which we commonly enjoy in 2025 and several that came true by 2000, - the predicted-by date.  Primary forces contributing to the three cases above were, Cultural, Technological, Material Innovations, Environmental, Social and Medical Innovations. 

The average height of Americans was the result of cultural, social, environmental and medical innovations.  Without the social and cultural acceptance of medical innovations and improvements to the medical environment, infancy and prenatal health improvements would not have contributed to the increased height of Americans. 

The advent of the Internet and Digital photography brought the ability to allow cameras to ‘see’ and transmit photos globally in near real time and with accuracy. The last two predictions were heavily influenced by technological, material innovations, social and even cultural forces (Larkin, 2022, Jenkins, 2024).

 

 

References

Arias, E. (2002, December 19). United States Life Tables, 2000. CDC. National vital statistics reports. Vol 51, No 3. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr51/nvsr51_03.pdf

Jenkins, P. (2024, April 6). 1930s Camera Evolution: A snapshot of vintage photography advances. Brilliantio. https://brilliantio.com/1930s-camera/

Kesby, R. (2012, November 22). How the world’s first webcam made a coffee pot famous. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-20439301

Ladies Home Journal predictions in 1900. (2012, January 17). Couriermail. https://www.couriermail.com.au/ipad/ladies-home-journal-predictions-in-1900/news-story/c1d49ed5ee4c80457b24b06b050e1f6d

Larkin, B. (2022, July 25). 30 predictions in history that came true. Best Life. https://bestlifeonline.com/historical-predictions/

Novak, M. (2020, January 6). What may happen in the next hundred years. Ladies Home Journal, 1900 Paleofuture. https://paleofuture.com/blog/2007/4/17/what-may-happen-in-the-next-hundred-years-ladies-home-journa.html

Ogden, C., Fryar, C., Carroll, M., Flegal, K. (2004). Mean body weight, height, and body mass index, United States, 1960-2002. CDC. Advance data from vital and health statistics. No. 347, 1-18. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/ad/ad347.pdf

 Our World in Data. (n.d.). Average height of women by year of birth. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/average-height-of-women?tab=line&country=~USA&mapSelect=~USA

Picture Perfect (2019, June 24,): The Evolution of the camera [Digital image]. https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/18488.jpeg

Roser, M., Appel, C., & Ritchie, H. (2021, May 1). Human height. Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/human-height

Tom Patton. (2020, May 30). 19 In Color - A brief history of color photography [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TR3rSXGKM4s

Planning & Forecasting

 

MoThoughts

Planning & Forecasting

July 9^th, 2025

 

Introduction

      Traditional forecasting analyzed historical data and trends to create predictive models of the future.  Scenario Planning is an exploration tool that looks at forces affecting a business organization’s marketing environment (ICEF, 2021b). Scenario Planning uses current data to extrapolate possible futures of opportunity, threats and possible innovation (ICEF, 2021b).  

The discussion below is predominantly based on videos from Woody Wade’s, lecture at GLOBIS Insights and Oliver Baxter’s TEDx Talks and looks at both concepts from the benefits of Scenario Planning. 

Scenario Planning vs Traditional Forecasting

In the TEDx video, The future of Work and Place, Oliver Baxter refers to Scenario planning as Futuring. He describes it as a relatively new concept that requires investing in existing fields to expand its growth in the future (TEDx Talks, 2019). Mr. Baxter notes that this process includes rethinking our reality’s perspective in order to unveil creativity and untapped resourcefulness (TEDx Talks, 2019).

This unveiling process requires sticking to three points (taking a long realistic view, using outside thinking and collaborating with experts from multiple disciplines or perspectives) while using the STEEP principle (sociological, technological, economic, environmental or political) to address and identify forces (TEDx Talks, 2019).

      Mr. Baxter noted four areas of comparison and contrast between scenario planning and traditional forecasting as follows,

1.     Scenario planning is differentiated from traditional forecasting by moving from imagining and creating actionable insights to viewing current trends that link together based on the identified forces (TEDx Talks, 2019).

2.     Scenario planning sees the workplace as being more contractual and with shorten work almost projectized timelines with environments redesigned for flexible movement based on current corporate objectives (TEDx Talks, 2019).

3.     Traditional forecasting generally ‘looked’ very far into the future which had the result of producing unconcern for those involved in the process. Scenario Planning views a shorter – i.e. 6 year- time span that contributors could envision themselves participating in (TEDx Talks, 2019) and therefore invokes a sense of inclusivity.

4.     Traditional forecasting generally started with a narrow scope, focusing on the company or the company- based objectives or challenges.  Scenario Planning identified outside forces by looking at wider perspectives and trends and narrowing those down to see how they could possibly influence the organization (TEDx Talks, 2019).

5.     The wider scope of scenario planning demands a larger team to be consulted using experts from different industries or companies, whereas in traditional forecasting the groups were prone to homogeneity.

The Globis Insights lecture conducted by Mr. Woody Wade covered similar points when looking at scenario planning and traditional forecasting. Mr. Wade cautioned that business people live for the future and must realize that the future is constantly changing, this change necessitates a state of readiness that is best conducted by the new concept of scenario planning (GLOBIS Insights, 2023).    Mr. Wade further notes that scenario planning is a tool that provides organizations an opportunity to come up with a structured and logical approach because it asks what landscapes could look like in the future.

This process requires exploratory visualizations of alternative futures and not predictive statements.  Mr. Wade recommended using PEST model/ principle (political, economic, societal and technological) forces that would impact trends or future development (GLOBIS Insights, 2023, ICEF, 2021b).   

Two areas of comparison and contrast between scenario planning and traditional forecasting highlighted by Mr. Wade are,

1.     Scenario planning is a multi-stage procedure that seeks to focus trends or driving forces down to critical uncertainties (GLOBIS Insights, 2023, ICEF, 2021b). This has the advantage of pooling resources towards future trends with the largest potential impact.

2.     Traditional forecasts viewed the future in a linear projection model based on historical occurrences. Scenario planning uses critical uncertainties to focus on structured quadrants/ matrices which allocate the advantages or disadvantages stemming from the uncertainty.  

Conclusion

Scenario planning is also described as “multiple alternate futures in which decisions may play out” (Ogilvy, 2022). He recommends sticking with four scenario perspectives and conducting a detailed eight step process which involved choosing points to explore and tell a story.    Like Wade, Ogilvy uses structured matrices to look at critical uncertainties which can be used to develop a strategic position.

Ogilvy notes that there are many ways to conduct scenario planning (2022).  Wade and Baxter demonstrate two ways of using scenario planning which utilizes models to identify forces which impact potential futures.

 

References

GLOBIS Insights. (2023, July 28). Scenario Planning: Thinking Differently about Future Innovation [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-CccEPJJ7k

ICEF. (2021b, January 27). Beyond forecasting: how to use scenario planning to map the future. ICEF Monitor - Market Intelligence for International Student Recruitment. https://monitor.icef.com/2014/02/beyond-forecasting-how-to-use-scenario-planning-to-map-the-future

Ogilvy, J. (2022, April 14). Stratfor: Scenario planning and strategic forecasting. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/stratfor/2015/01/08/scenario-planning-and-strategic-forecasting/

TEDx Talks. (2019, June 21). Scenario planning - the future of work and place | Oliver Baxter | TEDxALC [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAFGRGm2WxY